Of course, the reverse is also true, and the last thing anyone in the aerospace industry wants to see is declining passenger traffic -- usually measured in terms of revenue passenger kilometers (RPK). A look at the chart below shows that it's been a great decade for the commercial aerospace industry, with a never-before-seen run of profitability driven by passenger growth. For reference, I've included the original IATA forecast for passenger growth and airline profitability. More on that in a moment.
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While it's clear that aerospace stocks' earnings estimates for 2020 are under threat and will probably have to be taken down, it doesn't mean the industry is out for the count. On the contrary, new case growth appears to be on a downward trend in some of the earliest-affected countries like China, South Korea, and Japan -- a sign that the outbreak is starting to be controlled on a local basis. If this occurs in the rest of the world in the coming weeks, aerospace stocks are likely to bounce back strongly.
There is a case for buying into the industry right now in anticipation of a recovery, but anyone buying in must appreciate that the current earnings estimates for 2020 are likely to be downgraded. In other words, don't buy in without expecting some volatility along the way.
- Here's Why Aerospace Stocks Are Under Threat in 2020, Fool.com, Mar 12, 2020.
3. Movie theaters are down for the count right now, but when they open again following the current coronavirus pandemic, they may be free to attend at the start. With public gatherings essentially banned across the country to slow the spread of COVID-19, movie theaters have become ghost towns, with tens of thousands of employees furloughed or laid off due to the lack of revenue. Many movie studios have responded by postponing releases of their blockbuster films, raising the question of how movie theaters will survive the coronavirus.
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