人民币国际化不能依赖SDR_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

人民币国际化不能依赖SDR

欧元或许可以作为外汇储备管理方面现实战胜象征意义的一个例子，这一点人们可能不曾料到。1999年欧元问世时，人们通常预计欧元将会与美元竞争全球储备货币的地位，它将消除欧洲不同国家货币间的汇率风险，并作为一个庞大而统一的资产池的基础。

In practice, the euro’s share of reported global reserves, after rising to around a quarter,stalled and then somewhat fell back. The inept management of the euro crisis may be a factor,as may the fact that the eurozone sovereign bond market remains fractured into liquid safeassets (Bunds) and riskier instruments (most of the rest). But even before the crisis, the habitof European politicians in trying to talk down the euro whenever they considered it to bethreatening their exports caused amused head-shaking by their American counterparts, whoregarded the hands-off “strong dollar policy as integral to the greenback’s status as areserve currency. (Of course, it remains to be seen what effect on confidence will have thecampaigns of quantitative easing in all four SDR currency areas, with consequent large swingsin exchange rates, albeit without forex intervention.) China is likely to keep the nominalrenminbi-dollar rate stable between now and the decision on the SDR at the end of the year,but is unlikely to eschew various forms of meddling indefinitely.

在现实中，欧元在全球外汇储备公开数据中所占的份额先是上升至25%左右，然后停滞不前，后来又有所回落。对欧元区危机处理不当可能是一个因素，而以下事实可能也有影响：欧元区主权债券市场仍分裂为流动、安全的资产(德国国债)和风险较高的工具(其余大部分)。但在危机爆发前，欧洲政界人士每次感觉出口受到威胁时就试图口头压低欧元的习惯，屡屡让美国同行笑着摇头，后者将放任自流的“强势美元政策视为美元储备货币地位的一个要素。(当然，所有4种SDR货币区域都采取的量化宽松以及尽管没有外汇干预却伴随而来的汇率大幅波动，会对市场信心产生怎样的影响还有待观察)。从现在开始到年底IMF做出关于SDR的决定前，中国很可能会保持名义人民币兑美元汇率的稳定，但不大可能无限期地回避使用各种形式的干预措施。

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