更早一些出售原本对各方都有利。劳埃德银行集团(Lloyds Banking Group)股价在英国政府2013年9月开始减持以来已上涨11%。同一时期,苏格兰皇家银行的股价下跌了7%。没错,这与劳埃德相比,苏格兰皇家银行的状况一直疲弱得多。但政府持股以及政治干预该行的切实威胁(这种威胁最终变成了现实)一直在拖累该行股价。如果没有这些风险,苏格兰皇家银行的股价表现可能会好得多。此外,如果英国政府更早一些减持股份,苏格兰皇家银行原本能够在资本市场筹集股本。但该行一直无法这样做(想象一下如果政府最终要向该行注入更多资金所引发的强烈抗议吧),因此它不得不转而出售资产,例如旗下的美国银行Citizens。
One of the reasons that the government may have been holding back is the risk of being seento sell at a discount to the “in price of 502p. But this argument was always a red herring. Thein price is irrelevant. The government did not invest in the bank in order to make a profit, itinvested in order to avoid the consequences of a collapse. With the threat of a collapsegone, there was little reason to hold on. As any reader of the small print of investmentliterature knows, past prices are no guide to the future. RBS shares may never return to 502p— there is no point assuming that day will eventually arrive. Better for the UK taxpayer to sellout now, and to continue doing so (via quick, cheap institutional placements, rather thanlengthy, expensive public offerings) until the stake has gone altogether.
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