Every time I see a banner headline predicting the US is about to hurl itself over a fiscal cliff, I am more certain in my conviction: China may soon be the world’s largest economy, but now is the time to buy America.
每当我看到预言美国即将跌落“财政悬崖的通栏标题时,我就十分确信:中国或许不久就会成为世界最大经济体,但现在正是投资美国的时候。
The power struggle about the deficit between Barack Obama and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives could well end badly. A deal requires Republicans to admit that their no-tax-rises-ever pledge cannot survive the latest electoral defeat. Mr Obama must accept that it will take more than squeezing the rich to repair the nation’s finances.
巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)和共和党把持的众议院之间在赤字问题上的角力,很可能带来糟糕的结局。如果要达成协议,共和党必须承认,最近的选举失败表明,他们的“永久不增税承诺是行不通的。奥巴马则必须承认,要修复国家财政,仅让富人掏腰包是不够的。
That said, the risks and consequences of failure have been overdone. Even if negotiations do collapse, sequestration does not mean that the economy will be crushed by $600bn of instant tax increases and spending cuts. The impact would be felt through 2013. The short-term blow to confidence might be severe but what is threatened resembles more a slope than a cliff. If deadlock were to persist, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the US economy could shrink by 0.5 per cent next year – scarcely good news but, by European standards anyway, well short of catastrophe.
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