Of course, recognising high country risk is easier after the event than before it. Still, at leastone of the following characteristics is present in all cases of elevated country risk:
当然,在事后意识到较高的国别风险比事前容易。话虽如此,所有较高的国别风险案例都至少存在以下特征之一:
A country’s wealth below the high income threshold
国家财富低于高收入门槛
A geopolitical threat
地缘政治威胁
Impaired creditworthiness
信誉受损
A non-democratic political regime
非民主政体
A geopolitical threat needs no explanation, with wars and lesser types of military conflictsconstituting important risk factors. Impaired creditworthiness, as reflected for example in aspeculative-grade credit rating, is a country risk because default on public debt is a systemicevent that undermines investor confidence, damages the financial system and raises the costof capital. Last, democracies institutionalise uncertainty as elected governments areconstantly changing. Yet it is precisely the flexibility of a democratic system that mitigatesthe risk of a more sizeable political upheaval present in non-democratic regimes.
地缘政治威胁无需解释,战争和较低烈度的军事冲突构成重要的风险因素。就像(举个例子)投机级信用评级所反映的那样,信誉受损之所以是国别风险,是因为公共债务违约是一种系统性事件,它将削弱投资者信心、损害金融体系,抬高资本成本。最后,民主政体将不确定性体制化,因为选举产生的政府总是在变更。然而,也正是民主体制的灵活性,缓解了非民主政体中存在的爆发更大政治动荡的风险。
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