The situation feels familiar. The casus belli is a little-known group of islands. The country in possession is perceived, not least by itself, as being in long-term economic decline. The claimant considers the islands to be a symbol of national humiliation stretching back into the 19th century.
现在的局势有种似曾相识的感觉。争端的导火索是一群鲜为人知的岛屿。在外界眼中,控制岛屿的一国正身陷长期经济衰退——重要的是,该国自己也这么认为。而声称对这些岛屿拥有主权的一国,则认为这些岛屿是可追溯至19世纪的国耻的象征。
Like Argentina in 1982, China is ruled by an unelected cabal at the apex of an organisation designed for a bygone era. Like Britain,Japan is an ally of the US and unsure how much support to expect from its superpower friend.
像1982年的阿根廷一样,中国也是由一个非民选的小集团统治的,这个小集团统率着一个宗旨已然过时的组织。日本则像当时的英国一样,是美国的盟友,但不确定能从这个超级大国盟友那里获得多大支持。
There are clear differences too. Even at its 1970s low point, Britain’s economy was much larger than Argentina’s, whereas China has recently displaced Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy. Moreover, Japan’s armed forces have not fired a shot in anger in 60 years and the defence budget has rarely topped 1 per cent of output. China is a nuclear power with military expenditure at least double Japan’s.
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