随着时间的推移,经济风险是可以规避掉的。日本制造商在华生产的很大一部分产品,是出口到发达国家的。一旦中国劳动力成本失去竞争力,这种生产总是可以转移到成本更低的地方。如果最近的事件(包括本周富士康(Foxconn)爆发工人骚乱)加速了这一进程,并不会有人对此感到意外。实际上,丰田汽车(Toyota)的供应商东洋橡胶工业株式会社(Toyo Tire and Rubber)已在重审其各种选择了。“回归本土便是一个选择——特别是更为激进的货币政策导致日元走低的话——但是泰国的“微笑看上去也很少像现在这样诱人。
The strategic issues run deeper. The concept of “soft power has been found seriously wanting. The success of sushi and J-pop bands in China proved no more helpful than the popularity of Boy George and Chariots of Fire were in deterring Argentine general Leopoldo Galtieri. The argument for more hard power – increased defence spending – is likely to gain traction, as will nationalist voices on the right who have been sceptical about engagement with China. The idea of playing down the Japan-US military alliance and shifting to a more “pan-Asian strategy now seems naive.
更深层次的问题是战略。人们发现,“软实力的概念很不靠谱。就像“乔治男孩(Boy George)和“烈火战车(Chariots of Fire)受到热捧不能吓阻阿根廷将军莱奥波尔多·加尔铁里(Leopoldo Galtieri)一样,寿司和日本流行音乐在中国取得的成功同样无助于化解中日争端。加强硬实力(增加国防开支)的观点很可能会赢得支持,质疑与中国展开接触的右翼民族主义声音也会在日本国内得到响应。淡化日美军事同盟、转向“泛亚战略的观点,现在看上去很幼稚。
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