这仅仅触及了表面。纵观全局,由廉价处理器引发的创新正在形成中。计算机开始懂得自然语言。人们正通过单独的肢体运动在操控游戏这项技术可能过不了多久就能应用在商业中。3D打印能够批量打印出日益复杂的各种物体,并且可能不久将应用到打印人类细胞组织以及其他器官方面。
Aninnovation pessimist could dismiss this as jamtomorrow. But the idea that technology-led growth musteither continue unabated or steadily decline, rather than ebbing and flowing,is at odds with history. Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago points outthat productivity growth during the age of electrification was lumpy. Growthwas slow during a period of important electrical innovations in the late 19thand early 20th centuries; then it surged. The information-age trajectory lookspretty similar .
创新的悲观派可能斥之为可望而不可即。有观点认为,技术引领的增长要么是持续向上要么是稳定的下降,而不是起起落落。但是,这种想法有悖于历史。芝加哥大学的Chad Syverson指出,电气化时代的生产率增长呈破浪起伏的状态。在19世纪后期和20世纪早期是重要的电器化创新时期,在这段时期内,增长缓慢;随后,增长快速提高。信息时的发展轨迹同此高度相似。
Itmay be that the 1970s-and-after slowdown in which the technological pessimistsset such store can be understood in this wayas apause, rather than a permanent inflection. The period from the early 1970s tothe mid-1990s may simply represent one in which the contributions of earliermajor innovations were exhausted while computing, biotechnology, personalcommunication and the rest of the technologies of today and tomorrow remainedtoo small a part of the economy to influence overall growth.
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