Another thing which may have changed permanently is the role ofgovernment. Technology pessimists rarely miss an opportunity to point to theApollo programme, crowning glory of a time in which government did not simplyfacilitate new innovation but provided an ongoing demand for talent andinvention. This it did most reliably through the military-industrial complex ofwhich Apollo was a spectacular and peculiarly inspirational outgrowth. Mr Thielis often critical of the venture-capital industry for its lack of interest inbig, world-changing ideas. Yet this is mostly a response to market realities.Private investors rationally prefer modest business models with a reasonablyshort time to profit and cash out.
另一个可能已经发生永久性变化的事情是政府的角色。技术悲观派一有机会就会提起阿波罗计划。那是一个有着无上光荣的时代,当时的政府除了促进新型创新之外,还对天才和发明有着持续不断的需求。这主要是依靠军事和产业的融合来实现的,对此阿波罗计划是这种融合的一个令人惊叹的和特别鼓舞人心的产物。泰尔时常对风投产业对重大的、改变世界的想法缺乏兴趣提出批评。然而,这主要是对市场现实的反应。私人投资者在理性上青睐于适度的商业模式,因为它具备在一个相当短的时间内让投资者获利变现的特点。
A third factor which might have been at play in both the 1970s andthe 2000s is energy. William Nordhaus of Yale University has found that theproductivity slowdown which started in the 1970s radiated outwards from themost energy-intensive sectors, a product of the decade s oil shocks. Dearenergy may help explain the productivity slowdown of the 2000s as well. But thisis a trend that one can hope to see reversed. In America, at least, newtechnologies are eating into those high prices. Mr Thiel is right to reservesome of his harshest criticism for the energy sector s lacklustre record oninnovation; but given the right market conditions it is not entirely hopeless.
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