报告让广大群众松了口气,继而股票市场喜迎飘红,当然奥巴马总统的竞选团队也可轻松一下。但是,他们在兴奋之余更应保持头脑清醒:为何2010年和2011年就业光明的回暖之势却不明夭折了。
Will it do so again this year, possibly dooming Mr Obamas re-election? Two factors explainthe economys previous false starts. First, banks, households and governments are paringtheir debts. That deleveraging has further to go, but seems to have slowed as rock-bottominterest rates coax consumers to indulge some of their pent-up demand for homes and cars.State and local government lay-offs have also slowed. Meanwhile firms that were able tomeet increased demand by boosting the productivity of their existing workforce no longercan. Productivity growth, which topped 6% in the wake of the recession, slowed to just 0.5%in the fourth quarter . In December employers reported total jobvacancies of 3.4m, close to its highest since 2008.
今年是否还会如此?如果状况再次发生,恐怕奥巴马的连任竞选将面临破产。两个原因可解释之前美国经济错误的着手点。第一,银行,居民,和政府都在逐步清还债务。尽管降低债务杠杆还有很长的路要走,但至少借款已经减缓,与此同时,低至谷底的银行利率也诱惑消费者暂时满足下他们对住房及汽车压抑已久的购买欲。此外,之前,工厂可以通过提高已有劳动力的生产效率满足日益增加的需求,但现在,这种方法行不通了。即使生产效率一度在经济衰退后以6%的速度增长,去年第四季度也降低到了0.5%。去年十二月,雇主反馈职位空缺总量达到三百四十万,接近2008年以来的最高值。
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