So which candidates are likely to make the prime-time debate and which are destined for the “JV” event (if our assumptions about which pollsters Fox News will use for its average are correct)? To get a sense for just how random the results can be depending on where you draw the line, we looked at the current five-poll average — as if the debate were being held Aug. 1 — as well as the previous four times the average was updated as new polls came out. A new poll has been released every few days3 over the past few weeks. These averages reveal that some candidates are basically shoo-ins; others are very unlikely to make the cut. Then there are the “on the bubble” candidates, in one day and out the next. For them, who gets in to the prime-time debate will likely be as much about luck as about where they truly stand with Republican voters.
- Four Republicans Are On The Bubble To Get Into The First Debate, by Harry Enten, July 31, 2015, FiveThirtyEight.com.
2. There is living in a bubble – a condition I am increasingly in favor of with every election cycle, every commercial for “Chrisley Knows Best,” every time my fillings are knocked loose by a neighboring car with its speakers set on stun. Then pile on all the other assorted contemporary noise that assaults us.
Find me a bubble in which to escape – at full salary – and I happily will climb in and curl up.
Then there is living on the bubble. This is an uncomfortable state of standing astride a thin film of possibility. It’s always precarious. It’s always a balancing act, between hope and elimination. And more often than not, the bubble always seems to go, “Pop!” leaving you sprawled and sore.
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