Educated as in “educated tastes”. When we say someone has very educated tastes in wine, for instance, we suggest that they’re intelligent because they’ve been well taught and trained, and therefore have a high standard or judgment on the subject, having probably downed gallons of the drink also, to be sure.
In short, an educated guess is not a random guess, one that is tossed up without the guess maker giving it any thought.
The guesswork, for example, of Paul the octopus who successfully predicted winners in several matches in the current World Cup are random guesses.
Paul’s predictions are not educated guesses for sure.
And that’s probably why they’ve been accurate.
Because, for one thing, the octopus is detached to the outcome. The twirly crawly creature doesn’t give a hoot whether he is right. Nor is he worried about being cooked alive if he gets a result wrong – as some German fans threatened to do after Paul successfully picked Spain who ran out 1-0 winners over Germany in their semifinal matchup. He does it for the fun that’s in it, whatever fun that is in it.
Economic or weather forecasters, on the other hand, don’t have this type of calm-as-water state of mind. In fact, they’re often pretty vain. Some scientists won’t mind lying if it’s financially rewarding for them to do so. A scientist, for example, can get paid to say that tobacco is not dangerous, or global warming doesn’t exist. Hence and therefore, when it comes to making educated guesses under such circumstances, all their fine education, state-of-the-art facilities and equipment become of little avail.
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