国际英语资讯:U.S. faces economic recession risk: research agency_时事

国际英语资讯:U.S. faces economic recession risk: research agency

"The future paths of federal deficits and debt are especially uncertain now because they will depend crucially on how lawmakers address looming tax and spending decisions," noted the report.

Under current law, the budget situation will change markedly next year because substantial changes to tax and spending policies are scheduled to take effect in January.

Incorporating such changes in its baseline projections, the CBO said the budget deficit would shrink to 641 billion dollars, or 4 percent of GDP, in 2013 fiscal year.

However, sharp drop in the deficit, which amounts to 487 billion dollars, will have significant short-term economic consequences, the CBO warned.

The office expected that such fiscal tightening would lead to a recession, with growth in GDP declining by 0.5 percent and the unemployment rate staying above 9 percent in 2013.

In the alternative scenario - the policymakers act to change the law to avert tax increases and spending cuts - the budget deficit would hit 1 trillion dollars in 2013 fiscal year, but economic growth would reach 1.7 percent and the jobless rate would fall to around 8 percent by year end.

While facing a difficult job of striking a balance between controlling debt and boosting economy, the Congress so far has remained in a deadlock as the political parties are divided over tax and spending policies. Analysts say it is unlikely for Democrats and Republicans to reach a deal before the election.