政治风险仍将左右汇市_公共英语阅读理解

政治风险仍将左右汇市

These, he says, “brought about a revival in the divergence trade that will probably be the theme for the dollar, the euro and the yen in the first part of 2017”.

他表示，这些措施“带来了分化交易(divergence trade)的复苏，这或许会成为美元、欧元和日元在2017年上半年的主旋律”。

Mr Saywell agrees. “The euro hasn’t fallen as much against the dollar as the yen,” he says. “A lot will come down to the policy response of central banks.”

塞维尔认同这点。“欧元兑美元汇率的下跌幅度不及日元兑美元汇率，”他表示，“很多事情将取决于央行的政策回应。”

The ECB, he suspects, will taper monetary policy. While BNP Paribas forecasts the yen heading for ￥128 against the dollar, maybe even to ￥135, the bank expects the euro to drop to parity with the dollar but not much further.

他估计，欧洲央行将逐渐结束货币政策措施。尽管巴黎银行预测，日元兑美元汇率将跌向1美元兑128日元，甚至1美元兑135日元，但该行预测，欧元兑美元汇率将跌至1:1，但不会进一步大幅下跌。

“As the ECB exits QE, the market will rebound,” says Mr Saywell.

他表示：“随着欧洲央行退出量化宽松政策，市场将反弹。”

Still, the canny investor will doubtless keep up to date with all developments, political and economic, to chart the most trouble-free path through foreign exchange. As Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon says, 2017 has all the hallmarks of being a repeat of 1985 — loose fiscal policy, tax cuts, a hawkish Fed and a soaring dollar.