A common thought experiment to demonstrate this theory — developed by non-PC math guys in the 1960s — is called "The Secretary Problem."
有一个共识实验可以证明这个理论——那就是20世纪60年代的“秘书难题”
In the hypothetical scenario, you can only screen secretaries once. If you reject a candidate, you can't go back and hire them later (since they might have accepted another job). The question is: How deep into the pool of applicants do you go to maximise your chance of finding the best one?
假设,你一次只能见一个秘书。如果你拒绝了一个候选人,之后就不能再雇佣他(因为他们已经接受了别的工作)。问题来了:在众多候选人中,你怎么才能有最大的几率机会找到最佳人选?
If you interview just three applicants, the authors explain, your best bet is making a decision based on the strength of the second candidate. If she's better than the first, you hire her. If she's not, you wait. If you have five applicants, you wait until the third to start judging.
作者解释,如果你只面试三个候选者,你最好在面试第二个人的时候做决定。如果她比第一个人好,你就录取她,如果她不合适,你可以再等等。如果你有五个候选人,你就等到第三个人的时候再做决定。
So if you're looking for love between the ages of 18 and 40, the optimal age to start seriously considering your future husband or wife is just past your 26th birthday (37% into the 22-year span). Before then, you'll probably miss out on higher-quality partners that could still come around, but after that, good options could start to become unavailable, decreasing your chances of finding a good match.
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