数十年来,所有工业化国家的制造业都在减员,该过程始于上世纪90年代全球化浪潮开始前。贸易差额明显与该问题无关:常年处于贸易顺差的德国与始终处于贸易逆差的美国,在就业结构变化方面的相似点远远超过差异。
But the growth in overall trade that accompanied the regional and global trade liberalisation during the three decades before the global financial crisis will have the effect of changing the employment and production structure of the opening economies — indeed that is part of the point of lowering trade barriers. Standard theory predicts that with more open trade, countries will specialise more intensively in production that makes most use of their relative endowment of labour, skill, capital and natural resources.
但全球金融危机发生前的30年里的区域和全球贸易自由化带来的总体贸易增长,将会改变开放型经济体的就业和生产结构——实际上这正是减少贸易壁垒的部分意义。标准理论预测,随着进一步开放贸易,各国将更集中地专攻最大化地利用它们在劳动力、技能、资本和自然资源上的相对禀赋的生产。
Recent research by Adrian Wood measures to what extent this has indeed happened. As the table below shows (for more detail, look up the background paper) the share of manufacturing in global production and employment fell noticeably in the three decades from 1985. But different regions went through dramatically different changes. In particular, in most land-scarce regions (particularly prone to specialise in manufacturing, according to theory) the share of manufacturing in the economy expanded, while it shrank in all land-abundant ones.
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