But on Sunday, the Producers Guild of America handed out its prizes – and for the first time in its history had a tie. Both “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” took top honors from the PGA, beating “American Hustle” and sending the Best Picture chase back to potentially a three-horse race.
The PGA best picture winner has gone on to win the Oscar for six straight years, and a whopping 71 percent of the time overall, making it one of the most accurate indicators come Oscar night. But this year, that particular cheat sheet will be muddled.
While there always is potential for some surprises, predicting the Oscar winners is far from going off of hunches. The film industry, thanks to a plethora of precursor awards shows and honors from various guilds throughout the business, leaves us a wonderful trail of bread crumbs for clues on who we’ll see giving speeches on Oscar night.
Let’s start with the Oscars’ Best Picture. We knew a week ago when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced its Oscar nominees that we were essentially in a three-film race between “12 Years a Slave,” “American Hustle” and “Gravity.” Those three were thought to be the frontrunners going in, and they dominated the total nominations haul. “Hustle” and “Gravity” got 10 nods each, while “Slave” is up for nine awards.
- Predicting Oscar winners not always guesswork, NWTimes.com, January 22, 2017.
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