这不是要淡化对那些卷入贸易争端的行业可能带来的严重损害。上周五,由于大宗商品交易商预测,作为报复,中国将减少购买美国大豆,大豆期货价格下跌。一些使用钢铁和铝的主要行业正在抱怨原材料价格大幅上涨,这继而会降低它们在全球竞争对手面前的竞争力。
“The questions are does this escalate from here, is this part of a much bigger process, and how do business confidence and financial markets respond?” said Lewis Alexander, chief U.S. economist at Nomura. “With these relatively modest first-round things, it’s hard to make the case that it’s material” to the overall economy.
“问题是,将从这里升级吗?这是一个更大过程的一部分吗?商业信心和金融市场将如何反应呢?”野村证券首席美国经济学家刘易斯·亚历山大(Lewis Alexander)说。“只是这些相对温和的首轮战火,很难说对(整体经济)有实质性影响。”
The risk comes if things spiral out of control in ways that crater the stock market or lead businesses to pull back significantly on their investment spending. Keep in mind the way that trade disputes can cause economic damage without triggering a recession. Gary Cohn, the former White House economic adviser, said this week that tariffs could wipe out economic gains from the tax cut passed late last year. Still, with the economy in relatively strong shape, there is a big difference between “not growing as fast as it would without a trade war” and outright recession.
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