从日美贸易摩擦看中美贸易发展趋势_公共英语阅读理解

从日美贸易摩擦看中美贸易发展趋势

未来源于中美结构性矛盾的经贸争端不会停止，美国将在三个方向上对中国施加战略性压力。第一是全面孤立中国的国际经贸环境。美墨加协议针对第三国的市场经济身份限制条款还会复制到美国与其他主要经济体的相关协议上去，同时美国还会联合其他西方盟友推动主导改革WTO等国际经济组织，为中国参与国际经济活动设置高门槛。第二是美国将加强对中国高科技技术引进的封锁。美国会严格审核中国企业在美投资并购活动，并联合其他西方国家加强对中国高科技发展的限制。第三是美国会在中美文化教育科技交流以及事关中国核心利益的敏感战略问题上不时敲打中国，以施加压力。中国未来也必然会在以下三个方面积极作为，以对冲化解外部压力。首先是加大投入，加强自主科技研发，为中国产业竞争力的持续发展提供可靠的技术基础和动力。其次是通过扩大国内市场开放和深化“一带一路”建设扩大中国的对外经济交往，扩容中国与世界各国的自由贸易“大家庭”。再次是努力提升国内人民的生活水平，通过降税增加国民个人收入并支持中小企业发展，吸引国际国内投资，扩大中国内需市场，对冲外部市场的局部收缩。

Part of the trade disputes stem from structural trade issues between the two countries. The US may continue to ratchet up pressure on China for strategic reasons. First, it aim to isolate China in the global trade system. The USMCA enshrines a “poison pill” provision on exclusion of “non-market economies”, which may well be replicated in other trade agreements. The US may also reach out to other allies to advance WTO reform. Second, the US may tighten scrutiny on hi-tech exports to China. Chinese investment and merger activities in the US would be put under scrutiny, and America may even rally its western allies to do the same. Third, the US may hinder cultural and education exchanges and continue to gain leverage over China on its core interests.China may employ the following strategies. First, China will invest more in independent research and development to make its industries more competitive. Second, it could further open up its domestic market and promote the Belt and Road Initiative to empower external economic engagement and deeper integration into the global trade network. Third, it could deliver a better life for the Chinese people, continue to reduce taxes to support small and medium enterprises, attract more foreign investment, and tap domestic market potential to offset the impact of external shocks.