在英国,商店的地产价值占到所有机构房地产价值的一半以上。目前业主和银行似乎拒绝承认整个零售行业正在经历动荡。数字革命意味着,更多的连锁店将在未来几年倒闭。数十家(或许是数百家)商场和零售中心将会变得多余。届时零售地产的收益从何而来?
Banks were lazy and property lending seemed easy during the boom. This bias crowded out other borrowers. Now bankers must switch their emphasis, and reduce their focus on real estate. They should become more sophisticated about lending against cash flow, intellectual property, receivables, equipment and the like. Lending to productive industry helps create jobs and exports, and might well provide better collateral than supposedly reliable assets such as houses and shopping centres.
银行比较懒惰,在经济繁荣期间,发放房地产贷款似乎很轻松。这种偏见让其他借款者无法获得贷款。现在银行家必须转变重点,降低对房地产的关注。他们应该更精通以现金流、知识产权、应收账款和设备等为抵押品的放贷业务。向生产性行业放贷有助于创造就业和出口,还很可能提供比住房和购物中心等貌似可靠资产更好的抵押品。
Regulators too must realise the world has changed, and adjust their rules to reflect new realities about asset classes. The global property bubble has burst, and many of the tired assumptions about what is a modern repository of value have been proved wrong. Banks should reinvent themselves, and find ways to finance innovation and the future, instead of relying on broken lending models.
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