“迷你协议宣布之后,股市大涨:自进入2013年以来,所有主要市场的股票价格都上涨2%以上。2012年底的低迷气氛一扫而空。不过,这只是一波上涨行情最新的一次跳涨。这波上涨行情始于去年11月份。
This suggests a rally based on growth optimism and business confidence. So do America’s manufacturing expansion and robust if not pulse-quickening jobs numbers. The world’s largest economy added 155,000 jobs in December, continuing a trend from earlier months. While not an impressive number, it means that neither superstorm Sandy nor fiscal cliff nervousness made things worse.
这种情况表明,本轮反弹得益于市场对经济增长的乐观情绪以及商业信心。另外,美国制造业扩张、就业数据即使没到令人振奋的程度,也称得上表现强劲,都对市场提供了支撑。作为世界最大经济体,美国去年12月新增就业岗位15.5万个,延续了几个月以来的好势头。尽管这个数字并不是特别出色,但这意味着,不管是桑迪飓风(Sandy),还是财政悬崖问题造成的紧张情绪,都没有导致形势恶化。
Investors’ waning fear of sluggish growth would explain a steep slide in haven assets, too. The sovereign bonds of the US, UK, and core eurozone states such as Germany have cheapened fast in the past week. A more disheartening interpretation is that this reflects inflation fears as well as growth hopes. That is logical: the fiscal cliff mini-deal demonstrated US politicians’ preference for postponing hard choices on public finances. If a grand bargain on tax rises and spending cuts is unlikely, the default expectation must be that US public debt will be kept manageable by higher inflation. An American inflation spell would spill over to the rest of the world.
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