投资者对经济增长乏力的担忧逐渐减轻,可能也解释了避险资产价格的急剧下跌。美国、英国以及德国等欧元区核心国家的主权债券价格过去一周以来大幅下跌。关于这种情况,一个更悲观的解读是,这既反映了市场对经济增长抱有希望,也反映出人们对通胀的担忧。这种解读是合乎逻辑的:关于财政悬崖的迷你协议表明,美国政界倾向于尽量推迟就公共财政问题做出艰难抉择。如果就增税和减支达成全面妥协的可能性几乎不存在,那么人们自然就会预期,只有提高通胀率,美国的公共债务才能免于失控,而美国的通胀压力可能向世界其它地方溢出。
Thus gold, that fine gauge of inflation allergy, rose quickly at the turn of the year. As if on cue, the Federal Reserve’s delayed minutes came in more hawkish than many expected, and gold quickly sank below where it started.
因此,对通胀最敏感的黄金价格开年后迅速上涨。果然,美联储(Fed)推迟发布的会议记录显示,联储官员在通胀问题上的立场比许多人预料的更加强硬。金价随后迅速跌到新年起始水位之下。
The good news is that if inflation fears abated, renewed confidence about potential growth seemed not to. Stocks kept their gains. Money left haven bonds but it supported peripheral Europe. Italy and Spain’s 10-year benchmark yields fell by about 20 basis points in three days; Greece and Portugal’s by more than 50. If this upbeat start to the year continues, 2013 could be a turning point in the crisis. But a transatlantic tendency to make a hash of economic policy makes that too daring a hope.
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