At times, the BoJ has given the impression that it does not regard deflation as such a bad thing. It has objected to setting an inflation target – it has reluctantly adopted a more timid “goal – on the grounds that it might fail to meet it since normal policy tools are ineffective in a deflationary environment. It has also been reluctant to be seen to be financing government spending directly because this would shield the government from taking tough decisions, such as raising taxes, cutting spending and forcing a restructuring of industry.
有时日本央行会给人一种印象,即它并不认为通缩是一件坏事。日本央行之所以反对制定通胀目标(它已经不情愿地接受一个更为胆小的“目标),是基于如下理由:由于正常货币工具在通缩环境下无效,它可能无法实现目标。它也不愿意人们认为它在直接向政府支出融资,因为这将使得政府不用做出艰难决定,比如增税、削减支出和强迫行业重组。
Not all of what the bank says is wrong. But the upshot is that Japan is still stuck in deflation, albeit mild. A chance to resolve this stand-off comes when Masaaki Shirakawa’s five-year term as governor ends next April. Mr Abe, assuming he wins, will then be in a position to pick the next governor and two deputies.
日本央行的说法并非全都是错误的,但最终结果是日本仍在通缩,尽管是温和的。在日本央行行长白川方明(Masaaki Shirakawa)的5年任期将于明年4月结束之际,解决这种僵局的机会来了。如果安倍晋三赢得大选,他将可以任命下任央行行长和两位副行长。
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