投资东南亚股市须谨慎_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

投资东南亚股市须谨慎

China and India are Southeast Asia’s big fat neighbours. They always steal the limelight when it comes to investing in Asia. The capitalisation of the MSCI Southeast Asia index, which includes many of Asia’s other fast-growing economies, is just 2 per cent of that of the global index. But it has outperformed its global peer by a resounding three times over the past three years. What’s not to like?

中国和印度是东南亚国家的两大邻国。在投资于亚洲的话题上，这两个国家始终最引人注意。包括亚洲其他快速发展经济体在内的摩根士丹利资本国际东南亚指数(MSCI Southeast Asia index)的市值仅为其全球指数的2%，但该指数过去三年的表现，比全球指数高出3倍，令人瞩目，怎能令人不满意？

Past performance is, of course, not an indicator of the future. Southeast Asian equities now look expensive. Macquarie estimates that profit margins are starting to peak. Moreover, individual countries have their own particular challenges that investors should bear in mind for 2013. Consider the Philippines. Its benchmark index trades on 18 times forward earnings, the highest in a decade. Yet the country’s economy may stall from here. Strong domestic demand and a low base will probably push up inflation next year, for example, which would argue for a reversal of Manila’s relatively loose monetary policy. As for Indonesia, weak prices for soft commodities are pressuring its current account and accentuating the risks of currency instability and capital outflows. The Jakarta market has underperformed; that could well continue in 2013.