Inflation is not a panacea. But it is a useful tonic. Imagine what Japan’s economy would look like if, instead of enervating deflation, it had had inflation of, say, 2 per cent for the past 15 years. Mr Jerram calculates that the economy would be about 40 per cent bigger in nominal terms than it is today. That would make its ratio of debt to gross domestic product look far more manageable. Tax revenue would also be higher, and the yen most likely weaker, boosting exports. Mr Abe’s proposal – christened the “Abe trade – has sent the yen down and share prices up.
通胀并非万灵药,但它是一剂有效的补药。想象一下,如果日本在过去15年里经历2%的通胀,而不是夺去经济活力的通缩,日本的经济将会是什么情形。杰拉姆估算,那样的话,日本名义GDP将会比目前高出约40%。这将让日本的债务与GDP比率看起来更为可控。税收收入也将提高,日元很有可能走弱,从而推动出口。安倍晋三的提议(被称为“安倍交易)已经促使日元走低和股市上涨。
Several candidates have been mentioned for governor. Among the more interesting are Heizo Takenaka, economics tsar under former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, and Kazumasa Iwata, a former deputy governor who advocates stronger anti-deflationary measures and the purchase of foreign bonds to drive down the yen.
日本央行行长已经有数位候选人。其中更令人感兴趣的是前首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)政府时期的“经济沙皇竹中平藏(Heizo Takenaka),以及前央行副行长岩田一政(Kazumasa Iwata) ,后者主张加大反通缩举措,并购买外国债券以压低日元汇率。
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