This challenge is particularly acute at the start of the year when businesses close and tens of millions of workers head home for the Chinese New Year. Depending on whether the week-long holiday falls in January or February, it can have a major impact on data: lavish banquets lead to a jump in food inflation that soon subsides and factory closures cause a sharp but temporary drop in industrial output.
这种挑战在年初尤其突出,每年这个时候,大批企业关门停产,数以千万计的农民工回家过年。春节假期是落在1月还是2月,可能对数据产生重大影响:节日宴请导致食品通胀跃升,但不久就会回落,同时工厂停产导致工业产出呈现急剧但短暂的下降。
Because there were so few work days in January, statisticians had to extrapolate to produce figures for the full month, but economists suspect that they may have overestimated industrial activity in the process.
由于1月份工作日这么少,因此统计人员不得不推算得出全月的数据,但经济学家们怀疑,在此过程中他们可能过高估算了工业活动。
"Without sufficient seasonal adjustment, PMI this January would have been downwardly distorted. However, it is also likely that seasonal adjustment was overdone," said Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Take all monthly January and February data with a grain of salt."
“若没有充足的季节调整,今年1月的PMI数据将会偏低。不过,季节调整也有可能过头,”美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺表示。“要用怀疑的眼光看待所有1月和2月的月度数据。”
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