时过境迁。如今最重大的变化是,中国在收回日本控制下尖阁列岛(Senkaku islands,中国称之为“钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿)方面采取了更为强硬的立常最近一轮所谓“尖阁列岛冲击(Senkaku shock),在中国全国范围内引发了反日暴力游行,这令许多日本人相信,刚刚崛起的中国是个威胁。日本民众的这种想法对安倍晋三是有利的。安倍晋三主张,日本应抛弃禁止日本保有陆军或海军的和平宪法。他还希望增加军事开支。这些主张在新的形势下似乎是合理的。
The second factor to swing Mr Abe’s way is the lousy performance of the Democratic Party of Japan, which has raced through three prime ministers in three years. The DPJ was elected in 2009 amid hope that it could rejuvenate Japan after more than half a century of political domination by Mr Abe’s Liberal Democratic party. But the DPJ failed to seize the moment. Japan continues to drift.
第二个有利于安倍晋三的因素是日本民主党(DPJ)糟糕的政绩。该党在过去三年内走马灯似的换了三任首相。2009年,在安倍晋三所在的自民党(LDP)主导日本政坛超过半个世纪之后,民主党赢得大眩当时的日本民众希望,民主党能够带领日本实现复兴。然而,民主党未能把握机会。日本继续走下坡路。
The third point in Mr Abe’s favour is his willingness to consider more radical solutions to persistent deflation. He has entertained the idea of imposing a 2-3 per cent inflation target on the central bank and of appointing a governor willing to print money until that goal is achieved. So long as Mr Abe does not overstep the mark by threatening central bank independence, his bolder stance on inflation is to be welcomed. If anything, he has backtracked a little too quickly.
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