There is no question that China significantly increased the leverage in its economy to counter the global financial crisis. A surge in credit was the single most important part of the government's vaunted stimulus programme: new lending by state-owned banks from 2008-10 was about 60 percent of gross domestic product.
毫无疑问,为了应对全球金融危机,中国大幅提高了经济中的杠杆。信贷激增构成了政府高调刺激方案的最重要组成部分:2008年到2010年,国有银行新增贷款约为国内生产总值(GDP)的60%。
Some economists say they are less concerned about how much leverage China has than at the speed of the rise in China's leverage.
一些经济学家表示,相比中国的杠杆规模,他们更加担忧的是中国杠杆增加的速度。
UBS economist Wang Tao has noted that an increase of 40 percentage points in a country's credit-to-GDP ratio over five years correlates very well with financial crises. In China, there has been an increase of 40 percentage points in the past three years alone.
瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛指出,一个国家的信贷与GDP比率在五年之内增长40个百分点,通常与金融危机有很大关联。而在中国,仅过去三年这一比率就增长了40个百分点。
This "needs to stop soon and reverse in the coming few years," she says. For the government to follow a path of sustainable growth, it should ensure that banking sector credit grows by less than nominal GDP, she adds.
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