你不知道iPhone5对美国经济的重要性_BEC初级作文

你不知道iPhone5对美国经济的重要性

Forget QE3. Maybe the way to stimulate the economy is to force Apple to release more new iPhone models.

别管什么第三轮量化宽松(QE3)了。或许刺激经济的办法就是强迫苹果公司(Apple)发布更多新款iPhone。

O.K., that's not exactly right. But Michael Feroli, the chief United States economist at JPMorgan Chase, did a back-of-the-envelope calculation and estimated that the upcoming release of what is expected to be the iPhone 5 could add one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point to the annualized growth rate of America's gross domestic product next quarter.

好吧，这也不完全正确。但摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase)的首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)做了一个粗略计算，他估计即将上市的iPhone 5会在下一季度为美国国内生产总值(GDP)的年化增长率带来0.25到0.5个百分点的提振。

From the note he sent to clients today:

他今天发送给客户的报告中这样写道：

Our equity analysts believe around 8 million iPhone 5's will be sold in the US in Q4, even while sales of previous generation iPhones are maintained at a solid pace. While we have no idea how much these will retail for, if it is similar to previous launches it would be around $600. Likewise, if the imported cost component is similar to previous leading generation phones it would imply around a $200 per phone addition to imports (which is a subtraction from GDP). The difference between these two figures, $400, would represent the trade margins, which figure into GDP. Thus, calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost Q4 GDP by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. This would boost annualized GDP growth in Q4 by 0.33%-point. If hedonically adjusted constant quality prices of phones declined due to newer or better features -- a reasonable conjecture -- then the lift would be even greater, though past iPhone releases don't bear a visible impact on the relevant CPI components. The third of a percentage point lift would limit the downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth projection, which remains 2.0%.