The experts keep getting it wrong. And the oddballs keep getting it right.
专家总是弄错,怪人却总能碰对。
Over the past five years of business history, two events have shocked and transformed the nation. In 2007 and 2008, the housing market crumbled and the financial system collapsed, causing trillions of dollars of losses. Around the same time, a few little-known wildcatters began pumping meaningful amounts of oil and gas from U.S. shale formations. A country that once was running out of energy now is on track to become the world's leading producer.
在过去五年的商业史上,有两大事件震撼和改变了美国。在2007年和2008年,住房市场崩溃,金融体系瓦解,酿成数万亿美元损失。而差不多在同一时间,一些不知名的投机勘探者却开始从美国页岩层中开采出数量可观的石油和天然气。美国这个能源曾几近告竭的国家如今正向全球主要能源生产国迈进。
What's most surprising about both events is how few experts saw them coming -- and that a group of unlikely outsiders somehow did. Federal Reserve chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke failed to foresee the financial meltdown. Top banking executives were stunned, and leading investors such as Bill Gross, Jim Chanos and George Soros didn't fully anticipate the downturn.
这两大事件最让人惊讶的地方是,准确预见事态发展的专家寥寥无几――而一群不大可能的圈外人却做出了正确的预期。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)主席阿兰?格林斯潘和本?贝南克没能预见金融危机。银行业顶级高管惊得目瞪口呆,比尔?格罗斯(Bill Gross)、吉姆?查诺斯(Jim Chanos) 和乔治?索罗斯等顶尖投资者也没能完全预料到经济的衰退。
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