太阳能产业已经成为一个投资黑洞。五年内最大的几个集团的总市值缩水了约90%。这一数字还没有剔除“幸存者偏差(survivor bias),因为许多公司由于已破产而未被统计。如果说有什么地方出了问题,那就是这个行业本身——不仅产能过剩,而且在经济紧缩之际还依赖政府补贴。不过,根据伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的数据,在这五年中,安装太阳能发电设施的每瓦特成本也降低了五分之四。据伯恩斯坦估计,如今每瓦特约1.23美元的成本,到明年有望降至每瓦特1美元以下。这样,在中国日照更为充分的区域,太阳能有可能会比天然气更便宜。中国是太阳能的最大潜在市常虽然比起中国目前电力的主要来源——煤,太阳能发电仍将贵50%,但是中国正希望减少煤的用量。从这个意义来说太阳能发电将不需要补贴就能发挥作用。
Getting the economics of solar power to a point where it makes sense is one thing. Picking a winner among those still standing is another given the value destruction. Net debt is often equivalent to more than half of solar-panel makers’ total capital. Suntech, the world’s biggest solar panel manufacturer, risks being delisted in New York. Thinking that the industry can stand without subsidies in the near future is a mistake. However, it will not be the trade battles currently under way that make it work, but the technology. This is getting interesting, but it would take a very brave investor to jump in just yet.
【Lex专栏:太阳能产业的生机】相关文章:
★ 学礼仪 迎奥运
★ 伊索寓言9
最新
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15