3分钟教你看懂人民币升值的那些事_BEC初级作文

3分钟教你看懂人民币升值的那些事

Why it matters

为什么说人民币升值很重要？

China is in the middle of a rebalancing act, as Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, has eloquently pointed out. The yuan's rise is important to China's future, but it can't rise so fast that it imperils China's present. Pettis says the country must let the yuan's value increase so that the real value of household income relative to GDP expands. That is, the higher the yuan's value, the lower the price of imported consumer goods -- and all goods face some kind of import cost. "Even if you're drinking cup of Chinese tea [in Beijing], that had to be transported from Yunnan using oil, steel, trucks, so you're always importing," Pettis says. The flipside is, the more the yuan rises, the less attractive China's exports become to overseas buyers, because a strong currency increases the price foreigners pay for Chinese goods. The government must decide how much wealth it wants to transfer from manufactures to households by letting the yuan rise. Pettis believes if China revalues slowly, the balancing act will play out smoothly -- Chinese exporters gain new domestic customers as they lose overseas ones. But it's too early to say if that's happening. "Who knows whether this is the right pace or not," says Pettis, adding, "It seems to be reasonably successful."

北京大学（Peking University）光华管理学院（Guanghua School of Management）教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯曾坚定地指出，中国正处于再平衡过程中。人民币升值对中国的未来至关重要，但人民币不能升值过快，否则将危及中国的现状。佩蒂斯表示，中国必须允许人民币升值，以增加家庭收入相对GDP的实际价值。也就是说，人民币价值越高，进口消费品的价格就越低——所有商品都将面临一定的进口成本。佩蒂斯说：“就算你只是（在北京）喝一杯中国茶，也必须使用石油、钢铁、卡车把茶从云南运到北京。所以我们始终离不开进口。”但另一方面，人民币价值越高，中国出口商品便会逐渐丧失对海外消费者的吸引力，因为强势的货币必将提高外国人购买中国商品的价格。政府必须想清楚，到底希望通过人民币升值把多少财富从制造商转移到普通家庭手中。佩蒂斯相信，如果中国缓慢调整币值，中国的平衡做法将顺利完成——中国出口商在失去海外客户的同时，可以获得新的国内客户。但现在说这些还为时尚早。佩蒂斯说：“谁也不知道这到底是否是正确的节奏，不过看起来会相当成功。”

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