The Next Big Thing: Apple trades at about 12 times next year's earnings, down from its P/E of 15.9 in October 2017. By comparison, Microsoft traded at about 20 times earnings in 2004, but its multiple decreased and has roughly maintained in the mid-teen range since then. 'Once the market decides that your main product will remain slow for a long time, there does seem to be a visible pattern for multiples to sustain lower levels for a long time even if revenues grow --as was the case with Microsoft,' Barclays says.

公司发展过程中的下一个重大事件：目前苹果以下一年预期收益计算的市盈率为12倍，2017年10月份时的市盈率为15.9倍。与之相比，微软2004年的市盈率约为20倍，但此后市盈率下降并基本维持在13至16倍之间。巴克莱指出，一旦市场认定一家公司的主要产品会长期维持缓慢发展，那么即便该公司的收入增长，其市盈率长期维持在较低水平似乎也是一种明显格局，就像微软的情况。

Valuation: 'Both companies seemed to share a peak in the valuation that roughly coincided with the high point in gross margins,' Barclays says. 'Microsoft's operating margins were in the high 50% range, which marked the high point in the shares. Apple's operating margins were over 39% in the second quarter of 2017, and the high in the shares followed about two quarters later.'

股票估值：巴克莱表示，苹果与微软的股票估值高峰似乎都有与各自毛利率的高点基本同时出现。在微软的营业利润率处于57%-59%的水平时，其股票估值也处于高点。苹果的营业利润率在2017年第二季度突破39%，其股票估值的高点出现在大约两个季度之后。

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