Japan has also gotten its policy responses incorrect following their debt build-up and financial crisis. While Japan had the same monetary and fiscal policy tools as the U.S. government (but not the Europeans), they generally lacked a sense of urgency to their policy responses in the early years after their crisis in the early 1990s. Japan's government, in error, delivered policies as if its economy was in a typical business cycle slump. After years of languishing with sub-par growth, "Abenomics," Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's three-pronged approach to jump-starting the economy, could represent a turning point for Japan's economy. Time will tell if these bold policies will restore consistent growth and ultimately push nominal GDP growth above their interest rates.
那么,我们是不是就可以完全无视经济数据呢?当然不能。我们只需要做好准备来继续迎接那些看起来不是那么糟糕或者不是那么强劲的经济数据。不要因为某个月或者某个季度经济表现较差而坐立不安。我们中的大多数人在自己的职业生涯中都越来越熟悉经济周期,但当前我们所处的环境和前者不同。虽然短期内不太可能实现高增长,但我们确信,政策也不太可能造成经济衰退。只要不出现某些外部冲击,今后几年我们就有可能继续蹒跚前行。感谢我们的决策者,特别是美联储(Federal Reserve),他们准确地找到了美国经济的毛病,而且正在尽自己的最大努力来适应当前这个去杠杆化阶段。
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