Yet, there are also reasons to think things will not be so, uh, rosy this go round. A lot has happened since 2006—much of it the fallout from that smooth-as-silk coup. Shinawatra, who lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai, nevertheless remains popular and at the heart of Thailand's political problems. (Since being deposed, he's had a brother-in-law, a younger sister, and a close business crony in the seat of power). His political base, much of which comes from Thailand's rural provinces, is increasingly wealthy, educated, and unwilling to tolerate the undemocratic developments dealt them by the country's elites. That anti-coup demonstrations sprung up today in Bangkok is a show of that and a sure sign the coup will only add to that list of grievances and to the likelihood of more violence.

但我们也有理由认为，军事政变这一次不会那么美好。自2006年以来发生了许多事——其中大多数都是上一次如丝绸般平滑的军事政变的副作用。目前住在迪拜的他信处于自我放逐的状态，但他在泰国国内仍然有许多支持者，也是泰国政治问题的核心。（自被罢免之后，他信的姐夫、妹妹和商业密友曾先后执掌政权）。他的政治基础大多来自泰国农村，这些地区越来越富有，受教育程度也越来越高，民众不再愿意接受泰国精英阶层非民主的统治。曼谷今天爆发的反军事政变游行就表明了这种现状，更说明军事政变只会加深积怨，增加爆发更多暴力冲突的可能。

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