Career opportunities, especially the more lucrative international business opportunities, remain solely a first-tier city attraction. Average salaries outside first-tier cities rarely reach 50 percent of those inside.
As a result, it is hopelessly misguided and even fatuous to "lump" together one apparently cohesive Chinese property market. As most markets emerge and progress, so does the need for accurate segmentation.
It is, therefore, critical to introduce several economic and infrastructure-related segmentation variables in order to dissect China's property market effectively and assess any extent to which a "bubble" is apparent。
Property prices across China's first-tier cities have cooled in recent times, a reflection of the cooling in the Chinese economy overall. There will not be any price crash in first-tier cities, merely a cooling, followed by far more modest gains from now on.
But recent price panics in more and more of China's second- and third-tier cities don't signal the start of any bubble-bursting process generally.
Rather, they're a welcome reminder of the chasm in development levels between first-tier cities and beyond. Far too many new homes have been built outside first-tier cities, and foolish attempts have been made to piggyback on first-tier city prices when the economic opportunities and infrastructure both fall woefully short.
As a result, there may be more quite massive reductions in the prices of new homes in many second- and third-tier cities, especially those that do not benefit from relatively close geographical proximity to China's first-tier cities. There will also almost certainly be a quite substantial cut in investment into and construction of more new homes in many second- and third-tier cities.
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