如今肤浅的金融市场毫不关心来自东欧(更别提中东)的一系列坏消息,这一点人们已经见怪不怪。但这并不意味着这些消息真的一点儿也不糟糕。纽约和伦敦同样不关心一战的起源。直至萨拉热窝刺杀事件发生3个星期之后,《泰晤士报》才提到欧洲政治危机导致金融动荡的可能性。9天后股市由于不堪恐慌性抛售的重负而关门,因为投资者突然意识到世界大战爆发的现实。别相信任何人向你保证的市场已在某种程度上将此次危机的影响“考虑在内”。当年没有人把1914年8月的枪炮“考虑在内”。
This should give not only historians pause. If great historical events can sometimes have causes that are too small for contemporaries to notice, might not a comparable crisis be in the making today? What exactly makes our July crisis different? Is it because we now have the UN and other international institutions? Hardly: with Russia a permanent member of the UN Security Council, that institution has been gridlocked over Ukraine. Is it because we now have the EU? Certainly, that eliminates the risk that any west European state might overtly take Russia’s side, as France and Britain did in 1914, but it has not stopped EU members with significant energy imports from Russia fighting tooth and nail against tougher sanctions.
这不仅仅应该让历史学家停下来思考。如果重大历史事件的根源有时候过于微小,从而让同时代的人注意不到,那么如今一场类似的危机不是也有可能在酝酿之中吗?到底有什么能让我们7月的危机不同以往?就凭我们现在有联合国(UN)和其他国际组织?很难这样说:由于俄罗斯是联合国安理会(UN Security Council)常任理事国,联合国在乌克兰问题上陷入瘫痪。就凭我们现在有了欧盟?当然,这消除了西欧国家公然站在俄罗斯一边(就像法国和英国在1914年做的那样)的风险,但它没有阻止从俄罗斯大量进口能源的欧盟成员国极力反对实施更严厉的制裁。
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