债券市场扮演了更重要角色,削弱了银行的盈利能力。第三季度公司债券发行量同比涨幅接近300%。银行是债券市场的主要买方,然而一年期AAA级债券4.2%的收益率,远远没有一年期贷款6%的回报率那么诱人。
The move toward market-set interest rates is also a drag for the sector. Banks can now offer savers a rate 10% above the benchmark deposit rate and offer borrowers loans at 30% below. So far, that hasn't dented net interest margins. But with the full effects not felt until existing loans made at the old rates expire, and a further move to liberalize a distinct possibility, margins will be under pressure.
利率市场化趋势也拖累了银行业。现在银行可以向储户提供高于基准10%的存款利率,并向借款人开出低于基准30%的贷款利率。这一点到目前为止还没有对净利息收益率造成明显影响。但全部影响要到按旧利率发放的旧贷款到期之后才会显现,而利率进一步自由化的可能性也明显存在,所以利差将会承受压力。
On the positive side, bad debts remain low. But fears of an increase in credit problems as economic growth has slowed and as shaky loans from the 2010 stimulus boom fall due remain. Bank claims on other banks stayed high at 40% of total loans, up from 25% at the end of 2010. That suggests problem loans are being shuffled around rather than resolved.
好的一面在于坏账水平仍然较低。但人们还是担心,随着经济增长放缓、2010年刺激浪潮期间形成的问题贷款到期,信用问题会越来越严重。银行同业债权高居贷款总额的40%,高于2010年年底的25%。这意味着问题贷款并没有化解,而是在银行之间转来转去。
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