首先来看看当今三个高收入国家人口死亡率(每千人死亡人数)不同年份的情况:1751年的瑞典,1933年的美国,以及2000年的荷兰和美国(见右图)。1751年瑞典新生儿死亡率超过160人/千人。1933年美国新生儿死亡率超过40人/千人,到了2000年低于10人/千人。各年龄段儿童死亡率均在不断降低,其中10岁左右的儿童死亡率最低。我们看到较大年龄的少年死亡率现在有所上升,大部分是因为男孩子们的危险行为。在三十岁左右的年龄段经历了一段平台期后,死亡率又开始上升,但60岁以下死亡率不足10人/千人。美国的死亡率比荷兰的高,但80岁以上年龄段例外,美国的医疗资源主要集中在这一年龄段中。
Back in 1850 life expectancy was about age 40 in England and Wales. Today it is close to 80. In the case of Italy it has risen from 30 in 1875 to above the English level. The chart also shows the devastating effects of the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918. This is explained by how life expectancy is computed: the assumption is that the risks of dying at a particular age are produced by the ages of death of the population in a specific year. In 1918 a large proportion of young people died in the epidemic. This reduced life expectancy drastically. But those born in 1918 had far longer lives than these figures suggest. Similarly, a small proportion of the English and Welsh population actually died at 40 in 1850. Instead, a great many died aged as babies and many lived to be more than 60. Forty was merely the average age of death. Finally, notes Prof Deaton: “Saving the lives of children has a bigger effect on life expectancy than saving the lives of the elderly.” Thus, as death “ages”, the rise in life expectancy slows.
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