1850年英格兰和威尔士的人口预期寿命在40岁左右,如今已接近80岁。意大利的人口预期寿命从1875年的30岁一路上升,直到高于英国水平。图表还显示了1918年西班牙流感的灾难性后果。这可以从预期寿命的计算方法得到解释,它假设某个年龄的死亡风险是由某年人口死亡年龄来决定的。1918年有很大一部分比例的年轻人死于西班牙流感,导致预期寿命大大降低。但1918年出生的人寿命远高于图表所显示的年龄。同样地,1850年英格兰和威尔士实际上只有一小部分人死于40岁,死亡人口中有许多是婴儿。还有很多人活到了60岁以上,40岁只是平均死亡年龄。最后,狄顿教授指出:“在提高预期寿命方面,拯救儿童生命的作用远大于拯救老年人生命。”因此,随着死亡年龄提高,预期寿命上升减缓。
The health revolution has spread worldwide since the middle of the 20th century — dramatically so in east Asia; least so, alas, in sub-Saharan Africa partly because of HIV/Aids. A big element has been the collapse in child mortality. According to the Gapminder website, mortality among Indian children under five fell from 267 per thousand in 1950 to 56 in 2017. Over the same period it fell from 317 to 14 in China. These improvements occurred at much lower income levels than was the case in today’s high-income countries. This is partly because of improved knowledge (oral rehydration, for example), partly because of medical technology (vaccination, for example) and partly because of public services (clean water and sanitation, for example).
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