中国如何让资本外流变成好事_BEC初级作文

中国如何让资本外流变成好事

The real exchange rate rose by about 40 per cent after 2007, and by 2017 it had eliminated the persistent undervaluation that had for so long annoyed the US and the rest of the international economic community. This changed the dynamics of the balance of payments, reducing the current account surplus to 2 per cent of GDP from a peak of 11 per cent in 2007. The interest “carry” trades that had sucked private capital into China also started to unwind as the market recognised that the currency was no longer undervalued, and that Chinese interest rates would fall sharply if the economy experienced a hard landing.

2007年后，人民币实际汇率升高了约40%，到2017年，之前一直惹恼美国和其他海外经济体的持续低估已不存在。这改变了中国的国际收支态势，经常账户顺差从2007年相当于国内生产总值(GDP) 11%的峰值降至GDP的2%。之前把私人资本吸引到中国的利息“套利”交易也开始被解除，因为市场意识到人民币已不再低估，而如果经济硬着陆，那么中国利率将大幅下降。

In the past 12 months, private sector capital outflows have proceeded at a generally orderly pace, but have still forced China to reduce its reserves by $400 billion in order to prevent a precipitous drop in the exchange rate. It was not until the PBOC announced an adjustment to its exchange rate mechanism on 11 August, triggering fears of future devaluation, that the capital outflow hit crisis proportions. During August, the reserves dropped by $94 billion on the official figures, and many analysts think that disguised intervention in futures and options markets increased the genuine figure for currency support to over $170 billion last month.