Fortunately, there is no sign yet that this is happening in China, and really no need for it to happen in the future. On almost any basis, China’s unencumbered liquid reserves are much greater than liquid liabilities. In fact, there is a strong case for arguing that the present situation should be used as an opportunity to reduce excess reserves (see Joe Gagnon).
幸运的是,中国尚没有发生这种情况的迹象,而未来也没必要发生。在几乎任何基础上衡量,中国可支配的流动储备都远远高于流动性负债。事实上有很好的理由认为,当前局面应该被用作降低过高储备的机遇。
Excess reserves cost money, because the income earned on foreign assets is generally less than the interest paid on the domestic liabilities held by the central bank as part of its sterilisation operations. Furthermore, at times when the exchange rate is strong, it is difficult to bring the reserves home to refinance the troubled domestic financial system because this would lead to an undesirable overvaluation of the renminbi. The paradox is that the reserves can only be used when the exchange rate is weak.
储备过高要付出金钱代价,因为从外国资产中获得的收益通常低于央行作为冲销操作的一部分持有的国内负债的利息。另外,当汇率处于强势时,中国很难利用外汇储备为陷入麻烦的国内金融体系提供再融资,因为这将导致不可取的人民币估值过高。矛盾之处在于,只有当汇率较弱时,中国才能让外汇储备派上用场。
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