The relationship between flutters and finance also extends to theory. Many ideas central to financial mathematics began with betting. Wagers inspired the concepts of expected value and economic utility, and Karl Pearson, a major figure in developing statistics as a discipline, devised statistical hypothesis testing while studying dice and roulette.
赌博和金融之间的关系也扩展到理论中。金融数学的许多核心观点都源自赌博。赌博启发了期望值和经济效用的概念。将统计学发展成为一门学科的泰斗级人物卡尔•皮尔逊(Karl Pearson),正是在研究掷骰子和轮盘时设计出了统计假设检验。
Finance has also inherited many of gambling’s psychological follies. Both industries are susceptible to the “Monte Carlo fallacy”, in which people believe that a series of repeated events, such as several coin tosses coming up heads, means a change “is due”. Another shared hazard is “gambler’s ruin”, which results from people increasing their stake after a win but not lowering it after a loss. Scientific bettors work hard to avoid such fallacies. Indeed, the degree of statistical rigour employed by leading betting syndicates is higher than that of some investment funds, particularly when it comes to “back testing” potential strategies using historical data.
金融也传承了赌博中的很多愚蠢心理。两个行业都容易受到“蒙特卡罗谬误”(Monte Carlo Fallacy)的影响,即人们认为某件事发生了很多次,比如投掷硬币时多次出现人头面朝上,就意味着结果“应该会”改变了。两者共同面临的另一种危险是“赌徒破产”(gambler’s ruin)现象。这是因为人们在赌赢之后会加大赌注,但在赌输后却不会减少赌注。使用科学方法的赌徒会尽力避免犯这些错误。的确,领先的博彩集团比某些投资基金更严格遵循统计规律,特别是在利用历史数据对潜在押注策略进行“回溯检验”方面。
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