2011年围绕提高债务上限的激辩（各方均认识到了违约风险），是股市下跌17%的核心原因。

Second, in a world economy defined by global integration, Mr Trump’s economic nationalism is highly dangerous. Exports have been a major driver of the American economy in recent years. What would happen to exports if the US were to build a wall along its southern border and abrogate all its trade treaties? Withdrawal from trade agreements does not currently require congressional approval. If Mr Trump did even half of what he has promised, he would surely set off the worst trade war since the Great Depression.

其次，在全球一体化定义的世界经济中，特朗普的经济民族主义高度危险。近年来，出口一直是美国经济的主要推动力。如果美国沿着南方边境建起隔离墙并废除一切贸易条约，美国出口会出现何种结果？目前，退出贸易协定并不需要国会批准。哪怕特朗普只兑现他的一半承诺，也一定会挑起自“大萧条”(Great Depression)以来最严重的贸易战。

Third, prosperity depends on a secure geopolitical environment. Requiring Japan and Korea to defend themselves and scaling back Nato is a prescription for emboldening China and Russia and promoting nuclear proliferation. A perception that the US is at war with Islam rather than with radical elements within Islam is an invitation to terrorism. In such an environment, investment and trade are unlikely to flourish.

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