第三,繁荣取决于安全的地缘政治环境。要求日本和韩国自我防御、缩减北约(Nato)规模,会怂恿中国和俄罗斯,并刺激核扩散。如果美国被认为是与整个伊斯兰世界、而不仅是与伊斯兰极端分子开战,这无异于向恐怖主义发出邀请。在这样的环境中,投资和贸易不太可能蓬勃发展。
Fourth, Mr Trump’s authoritarian style and cult of personality surely would take a toll on business confidence. He has proposed to bring back torture as a tool of US foreign policy and to change the law so he can sue and punish publications he does not like. The country was paralysed by Watergate and to a lesser extent the Iran-Contra scandal, both of which involved extralegal activity by the president’s staff and the abuse of power. Who will rest secure with President Trump controlling the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Central Intelligence Agency?
第四点,特朗普的独裁风格和个人崇拜必然会对商业信心造成负面影响。他提议把酷刑重新作为美国外交政策的工具,修改法律以使他可以起诉和惩罚他不喜欢的出版方。美国曾因“水门事件”(Watergate)和“伊朗门”(Iran-Contra)丑闻而瘫痪(后者影响相对较轻)——两起事件均涉及总统工作人员的法外活动和滥用职权。若特朗普总统控制联邦调查局(FBI)和中央情报局(CIA),谁能高枕无忧?
Finally, there is the question of uncertainty and confidence. Improving business confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus. Creating an environment where every tenet of the rule of law, internationalism and consistency in policy is up for grabs would be the best way to damage a still fragile US economy. In no election in my lifetime has a major party candidate for president been so dangerous for the economy.
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