在欧洲,预测冬天持续时间和动物行为扯到了一起。人们会观察熊、旱獭、刺猬等冬眠动物,看它们会不会从洞里出来。
In Germany, the weather was anticipated by badgers. When Germans began settling in Pennsylvania, however, badgers weren't so readily available: The easiest hibernating animal to locate was the groundhog. In 1887, a newspaper editor began circulating the idea that one groundhog in particular, Punxsutawney Phil, was a meteorological wonder. Before long, the entire country became preoccupied with Phil’s prognosticating, and an annual tradition was born.
在德国,天气是由獾来预测的。但是,当德国人在美国宾夕法尼亚州定居的时候,獾并没有那么好找:最容易找到的冬眠动物是土拨鼠。1887年,一位报社编辑开始传播一个信息:有一只名叫庞克瑟托尼·菲尔的土拨鼠是预测天气的奇才。没过多久,整个国家都被菲尔的预测迷住了,一项年度传统就此诞生。
Phil isn't the only one in the business of long-range forecasting. The Old Farmer's Almanac, a yearly digest of upcoming weather patterns for large geographical areas, is prepared up to 18 months in advance: Its editors claim an 80 percent accuracy rate, though some meteorologists dispute the viability of assessing weather more than two weeks out.
从事长期天气预报的不只有菲尔。《老农民年历》是一本预测大范围地区天气的年度出版物,每年都是提前18个月准备。这本年历的编辑声称准确率有80%,尽管一些气象学家质疑提前两周以上预测天气是否可行。
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