For years, many analysts have said that Russia will reform only when the oil price falls because Gazprom seems to be the Kremlin’s main slush fund, which is now being drastically reduced. The Kremlin will have little choice but to forsake its mega-projects. It has already abandoned the mastodon Arctic Shtokman field. The next steps should be to back out of South Stream, the superfluous and exceedingly expensive pipeline project, as well as the planned gigantic sky-rise headquarters in St Petersburg. But that will hardly suffice. This dysfunctional former Soviet gas ministry will have to be cut up into real companies, which need to be privatised.
许多分析师多年来一直表示,由于Gazprom似乎是俄罗斯政府的主要行贿基金,因此俄罗斯只有在油价下跌时才会启动改革。目前Gazprom的实力正急剧萎缩。俄罗斯政府将别无选择,只能让Gazprom放弃那些超大型项目。Gazprom已经放弃庞大的北冰洋什托克曼(Shtokman)气田项目。下一步将是放弃用处不大、造价极为高昂的South Stream天然气管道项目,以及原定在圣彼得堡兴建摩天大楼总部的计划。但仅有这些还远远不够。这个前身是功能失调的原苏联天然气工业部的集团有必要进行私有化,拆分为几家真正的公司。
Gazprom’s demise looks likely. With its demise, Russia’s revenues would dwindle. Mr Putin‘s model of state capitalism would suffer a devastating blow from Gazprom’s fall. If not even Gazprom is viable, which Russian state company is? Such an insight could give market economic reforms new impetus. After all, Russia just privatised $5.2bn of shares in Sberbank, the state savings bank.
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