I have a copy of a long-forgotten 1987 book by Arthur C Clarke: July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st century. I did not plan on mentioning it until the 50th anniversary of the first moon landings, which its title reflects. But I am breaking my own embargo because re-reading it has given me new insight.
我有一本《2019年7月20日:生活在21世纪》(July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st century)——该书为亚瑟?C?克拉克(Arthur C Clarke)所著,1987年出版,被人遗忘已久。我本打算到登月50周年时再提起这本书,因为书名反映的正是这一纪念日。但我打破了给自己设置的禁令,因为重读这本书给了我新见解。
Clarke, a science-fiction writer, was also no slouch as a futurologist. His fictional HAL 9000 computer in 2001: A Space Odyssey, which he co-wrote, presages many of today’s fears about artificial intelligence. He was also a real scientist who, in a 1945 article, proposed communications satellites.
克拉克是科幻小说作家,也善于预言未来。他在与他人合著的《2001:太空漫游》(2001: A Space Odyssey)一书中虚构的HAL 9000电脑,预言了如今人们对人工智能存在的很多担忧。他也是一位真正的科学家,曾在1945一篇文章里提出了通讯卫星。
Unless things change in the next 23 months, July 20, 2019 is wrong in almost every detail. Clarke suggests, for example, “amplifiers” to make us more intelligent — but makes no mention of the internet, which was in development at the time and was predicted 15 years earlier by Joseph Licklider of MIT, when he was working at the US defence department.
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