Sectarian warfare and chaos bring their own problems. The spectre of Mr Assad’s non-conventional arsenal falling into extremist hands is a frightening one. Syria’s fracture could produce the kind of volatility across Syria’s borders that Israel has experienced across the Lebanese one. Iran could prove more adept at exerting its influence, and protecting its links with Hezbollah, in a Syria torn by sectarian strife, than many are yet willing to concede. And who can know what threat the forces that emerge in Damascus may pose to regional stability?
教派战争和混乱本身会产生问题。阿萨德的非常规武器库落入极端分子之手的可怕前景令人不寒而栗。叙利亚分裂可能引发动荡,产生超出该国边界的冲击波,就像以色列感受到黎巴嫩境内的动荡一样。在一个被教派冲突撕裂的叙利亚,伊朗在施加影响并保护其与真主党的联系方面,可能比很多人所愿意承认的更加拿手。再说,谁能知道在大马士革脱颖而出的力量,将对地区稳定构成什么样的威胁?
For all the importance of removing the brutal Assad regime, the risks associated with its demise are significant and must be mitigated. His removal, for example, should probably not include the wholesale dismissal of state officials or the dismantling of state institutions, allowing for the kind of chaos the de-Ba’athification of Iraq produced. Similarly, decisively weakening Iran will be important to limit its reach into a post-Assad Syria. Also crucial are efforts to build an inclusive constitutional and governing structure that might hold Syria together and prevent retaliation against Alawite communities or cross-border provocations.
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