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世界经济仍在恶性循环

与此同时，几个金砖国家各有各的苦恼。一方面，这些国家受到腐败、金融失衡等一些深层次问题的困扰，经济增长也受到连累。与此同时，人口条件的变化趋势也令人们对这些国家的长期前景产生质疑。

In much of the industrial world, what started as a financial problem is becoming a structural one. If growth in the US and Europe had been maintained at its average rate from 1990 to 2007, gross domestic product would have been between 10 and 15 per cent higher today and more than 15 per cent higher by 2015 on credible projections. Of course, this calculation may be misleading because global GDP in 2007 was inflated by the same factors that created financial bubbles. However, even if GDP was artificially inflated by 5 percentage points in 2007, output is still about $1tn short of what could have been expected in the US and EU. This works out to more than $12,000 for the average family.

在大多数工业化经济体中，最初的金融问题正在转变为结构性问题。据可靠估算，如果美国和欧盟一直保持1990至2007年之间的平均经济增长率，其国内生产总值(GDP)将比目前的水平高10%至15%，到2015年，其GDP将高出15%以上。当然，这个计算可能带有误导性，因为正是导致金融泡沫产生的那些因素推高了2007年全球GDP。然而，即便2007年的GDP被人为推高了5%，如今美国和欧盟的产出仍然比应有的水平低1万亿美元左右，分摊下来相当于每个家庭逾1.2万美元。

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